The role of causality in prediction and the example of CHARIOT: A prediction-under-intervention model for cardiovascular primary prevention

Dear Colleagues,

We are pleased to invite you to the next seminar in the Christabel Pankhurst Institute Seminar Series:

🎤 Professor Matthew Sperrin, University of Manchester
📅 Tuesday 13th October
⏰ 12:00-13:30
📍 Emmeline Suite, Christabel Pankhurst Institute, University of Manchester
🥪 Lunchtime‑friendly — feel free to bring your own lunch

🔗 Register here: Christabel Pankhurst Institute Lunchtime Seminar 12 Registration – Fill in form

Join us for a seminar on:

The role of causality in prediction and the example of CHARIOT: A prediction-under-intervention model for cardiovascular primary prevention

In current clinical prediction models in cardiovascular disease primary prevention, the emphasis is on estimating absolute risk of future outcomes, and proposing intervention where risks are high. However, this ‘risk-based approach’ does not directly consider the benefits of interventions (e.g., not providing risks for ‘on’ versus ‘off’ treatments), limiting ability to support decisions.

We introduce CHARIOT (Cardiovascular Health Assessment and Risk-based Intervention Optimisation Tool), a prediction under intervention model for cardiovascular disease prevention, that will allow assessment of the potential benefits of both pharmaceutical and lifestyle interventions.

We will first describe some of the methodological challenges in developing the CHARIOT model, and explain why causal inference approaches are required to address these. Second, we will introduce our current work and associated challenges concerning pathways to implementation. This includes building a front end for both clinicians and patients to use, medical device registrations, and defining a commercial pathway.

Please register using the link above and feel free to share this invitation with colleagues who may be interested.

We hope to see you there!